Given the sharp moves we've seen in the US Treasury market over the last several days, we updated our trading range charts of major international 10-year government bond yields. In each chart the blue shading represents 2 standard deviations above and below the yield's 50-day moving average. As shown below, the sharp declines have not been confined to just the US. In five of the six countries/r...
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I really have no insight today. I can watch the tells, but this relentless discussion of bottoming in a process that will probably take years to unwind is pretty nauseating. At least I'll admit I've got nothing, as opposed to the pundits or 'deciders' like Paulson and Bernanke who FUBAR'd the economy and now have all the answers?Illegitimi non carborundum.I sold my December VIX calls yesterday....
From the WSJ:Grim economic data Monday showed more pain for U.S. manufacturing and construction.The Institute for Supply Management, a key measure of U.S. manufacturing activity, said its overall index for last month moved to 36.2 from 38.9 in October and 43.5 in September. November's reading was the weakest since May 1982.Cliff Waldman, an economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI trade gr...
Adam Hewison released a video yesterday regarding Monday’s bearish move and where it occurred in context and what it might mean for the broader market - it’s definitely worth viewing to see his views and price projections. Entitled “The Dow Crash,” though it isn’t as tragic as it sounds, Hewison takes us through line, bar, and candle charts on the Daily and Weekly ...
The Arms Index or TRIN is an indicator that I watch closely for short to intermediate-term setups. The indicator which combines ratios of advancing issues to declining issues and advancing volume to declining volume is a reasonably reliable contrary signal. Since mid-October the Arms Index has been generating a number of historically high signals. In the chart below, I used a 10 day exponential...
A chart can be worth a thousand words and two charts, I am sure, can be worth vastly more. The country is panicking over the volatile state of the financial markets, in doing so it has lost sight of the vital fact that the financial sector, as it is called, is in fact the financial face of the production structure, that incredibly complex assembly of capital goods that so many smart alecks on W...
It looks like yesterday's market gobbled up the gains of the Thanksgiving rally. It was to be expected since the Monday following Black Friday is historically a down day. (See my previous article, “The Turkey Effect,” for further details.) Last week's rally sparked hope of a market bottom; I, however, do not share that hope as evidenced by the following charts of the the VIX and the...
Click charts to ENLARGE.The National Bureau of Economic Research acknowledged that we have been in a recession for about a year. Who knew? What with the Larry Kudlows, Don Luskins, and their ilk telling us that everything was fine, and Jeremy Siegel reminding us to assume growth like beggars assume wishes, can you believe it? I mean, wouldn't you announce something like that in real time, or do...
Yesterday sellers came back from the holiday break and hit the market hard. Unfortunately, all this did was mess up the charts so as to keep everyone guessing what to expect next. It is our gut feeling that this market has gone down too far to provide good shorting opportunities that are worth more than just a quick day trade. We are not convinced that the downtrend is resuming here and we have...
One of the most striking features of the current economic environment is the number of charts and graphs of statistical, price or other data that depict cliff-like drops or moon-shot-like jumps. Today’s example, highlighted by Jan-Martin Feddersen, publisher of the immobilienblasen blog, can be found in a post entitled “Number Of The Day: ‘Percentage Of US Companies With A Jun...