There are two important technical events right now.1.) The market is in a clear downward sloping channel. So long as prices remain in that channel the market will be somewhat "predictable". However, notice there is roughly a 20 point range for prices to move in. That means we can have 15% - 20% moves and still be within the channel. So high volatility is still a possibility.2.) I drew two horiz...
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The enormous rise in prices which ended in year 2000 was a Mania, a Stocks Mania. The first move down after the end of the Stocks Mania marked the beginning of a new major trend, a downtrend this time, which has many months – perhaps extending into years - yet to run. That first move down ended with the 2002 lows. The subsequent high which ended in October 2007 was the first bounce in the...
Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) is still in a pinch despite more than a 100% bounce from recent lows, and its still-relatively new CEO is caught right in the middle of a storm he might not escape. This call comes with some mixed emotions because what is obvious is that Vikram Pandit has been trying to make this horrible banking year and this horrible environment as painless for the company's employe...
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Sony Corp ADR (SNE), TechnologyI happened to be reading two articles on CIO.com yesterday concerning Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) and its Wii distribution strategy. There was an older one from August discussing the reasons why the Wii has been in short supply. Was Nintendo purposely making the Wii a rare commodity? Were there indeed production problems? The second mentio...
Buy, Sell or Hold Insight: GM Remains a High Risk Profit Play – Even as it Files its Turnaround Plan Today
Tue, Dec 2, 11:31 AM ET
With America’s “Big Three” automakers all due to submit turnaround plans to Congress today (Tuesday) – a requirement if General Motor Corp. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F), and Chrysler Corp., are to receive $25 billion in government loans – I couldn’t help but recall the moment eight years ago when I realized the U.S. auto industry was skidding toward a financial c...
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) — Treasuries rose, pushing yields to record lows, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may purchase Treasuries and target long-term interest rates to combat the deepening recession. …and the monetizing of debt begins. I’ve talked extensively in several issues of Bourbon and Bayonets about the coming turmoil in long dates U.S. tre...
If you were counting on gold to boost your returns this year, chances are you’ve been cruelly disappointed. In fact, when it comes to gold-related investments, virtually every category is down, making this one of the worst years in history for gold investors. So, why is it that the largest of the large futures traders have some of the lowest net short positions in years? And what does thi...
Allow me to illustrate the simple application of support and resistance to a very short-term trade. First, the chart: As I stumbled downstairs, puppy in hand, I glanced at the ES chart and saw that it had fought its way back up to short-term resistance (see horizontal line). I figured this was a pretty safe place to short, so I sold 20 ES at 834. My initial stop was set to 837, but as the marke...
The ongoing saga of the people who refuse to live within their means. Federal Bailout on the way? Yahoo: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal emergency Monday and called lawmakers into a special session to address California’s $11.2 billion deficit. The state’s revenue gap is expected to hit $28 billion over the next 19 months without bold action. The emergency declaration a...
Dr. James Schlesinger says the U.S. attitude towards oil “has only two modes – complacency and panic.” Schlesinger should know. In the 70’s he closely watched the Middle East as the U.S. Secretary of Defense. Then he would move onto become the first U.S. Secretary of Energy when oil prices were really starting to move up during the Carter Administration. He was in the th...