XLE Forming a Bear Flag?

The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) chart shows price falling off a cliff starting in May. It is difficult to see more than three waves down with the current consolidation as wave four.  Price bounced off the 1×4 angle from the 2002 low after following the 1×8 angle down.  This is not a bullish setup. Nothing is a given, but my guess is that energy has more downside.  A breakdown from...

Fifty Percent Correction of Recent Run

Price retraced 50% of the five day move today.  Volume was below average and slightly above last Wednesday.  No one likes an 8% plus move down.  But 8% ain’t what it used to be. The number of new lows barely budged today.  This seems odd based on the magnitude of the decline.  It will be interesting to watch the next few days to see if price changes direction or the internals do. I read a...

VLE Correction Waves

Using my Elliott Wave count for the Value Line Arithmetic Index (VLE), (which is debated by some), I see 248 days to complete the first 5 waves.  I then see around 248 days to complete an A-B-C correction and the next 5 waves down.  I’ve noticed this time line on a number of occasions when counting waves.  Keep in mind that the current move upward may only be part of wave 5 down.  Until t...

Weekend Outlook - 29Nov08

The week ended with on a five day rally. Volume trailed off all week which is expected around the Thanksgiving holiday.   Volume should be relatively light the remainder of the year (based on history). The market remains oversold after a five day rally which is a good sign for additional upside.  The push down in price at the end of October into November was not reflected in the Advance-Decline...

Coal - JRCC Chart is Bouncing

Reader and idea contributor Libby believes the chart of James River Coal Company (JRCC) is ready for a move up.  I assume the recent drop occurred after news reports showed president-elect Obama is not a friend to the coal industry.  But that is fundamental analysis of which I know as much as most (meaning very little).  The company has only traded publicly since 2004. What do the charts say? T...

A Happy Thanksgiving Thank You

THANK YOU VERY MUCH! To the thousands who have visited the site in the past months, I appreciate your patronage. Thanks again. Andy Askey Alternative Suggestion

Natural Gas Working Toward Cycle Point

The price of natural gas continues to work toward the angle intersection near six dollars.  The angle from the 2001 low has provided support before. The Wilshire 5000 has a huge gap to fill eventually.  The top of this gap is at the 50% price level of the 2001-2007 range. Charts courtesy of Stockchart.com

Copper and West Texas Intermediate Crude

The price of copper made a nice run from 2002 to 2006.  Price then spent one half of the time cycle building a top between the high and a 50% retrace.  At the 50% time cycle price dropped in a hurry and currently sits on the 1×2 Gann angle.  Nothing on this chart looks bullish and my bet is on another leg down eventually.  Even if that does not occur, I doubt price will make a run at the h...

SPX 1987 Bottom Was 45 Days

As I mentioned this morning, the recent thrust up started on day 45 since the October 10th cycle end. The 1987 low following the crash also lasted 45 days. There is no guarantee that the low is in. But markets often follow the same cycle patterns. The 1987 crash started in August and ended in October. The recent bear market started in July 2007, but the current leg down started in August 2008.

Copper and West Texas Intermediate Crude

The price of copper made a nice run from 2002 to 2006.  Price then spent one half of the time cycle building a top between the high and a 50% retrace.  At the 50% time cycle price dropped in a hurry and currently sits on the 1×2 Gann angle.  Nothing on this chart looks bullish and my bet is on another leg down eventually.  Even if that does not occur, I doubt price will make a run at the h...